Christmas Order Surge: The Changes and Constants of China's Foreign Trade
At the container terminal of Yiwu Port, Christmas decorations are being hastily loaded onto ships. This year's annual global "Christmas migration" has arrived earlier and more intensely than in previous years."Our orders were basically fully booked in June, two months earlier than previous years," said a Yiwu-based Christmas product manufacturer. This is not an isolated case. Customs data shows that from January to April 2025, the export volume of Christmas products from Yiwu increased by 107.4% year-on-year, with exports reaching 190 million yuan in April alone.
01 The Early-Blooming Christmas Season
In previous years, the peak shipping period for Christmas orders was around August, but this year, cargo ships loaded with Christmas goods have been sailing to the world since April. In the third quarter, the export volume of Christmas products from Yiwu reached 5.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.9%.The US market has responded most significantly. Since June, the purchasing volume of Christmas accessories by US buyers on Alibaba.com has soared by 120% year-on-year, and toy orders have surged by 6 times.The market pattern is also quietly changing. Markets in Latin America and the European Union are rising rapidly. In the first three quarters, Yiwu's exports of Christmas products to the EU increased by 45.0% year-on-year, and to Latin America by 17.3%, accounting for more than 60% of the total export volume.
02 Three Major Drivers Behind the Boom
The early explosion of Christmas orders is the result of the combined effect of multiple factors.First, the stimulation of the policy window period. In May 2025, China and the United States reached a tariff agreement, forming a 90-day tariff "window period". To seize this opportunity, US buyers concentrated a large number of orders in June, resulting in a short-term "blowout".Second, forward stockpiling under supply chain anxiety. Affected by factors such as the Red Sea crisis, global shipping remains unstable. Overseas retailers have to purchase in advance to leave sufficient time and safety stock for the Christmas sales season.Third, the rapid response of China's supply chain. Faced with the surging orders, Chinese factories quickly adjusted their production capacity. Some enterprises even adopted the innovative model of "semi-finished products + overseas warehouses", shortening the delivery cycle to about 20 days, which greatly improved flexibility.
03 A Calm Observation Amid the Boom
Beneath the superficial prosperity, there are undeniable challenges.To a large extent, this order surge reflects the "forward effect". Han Yonghui, an economic decision-making expert of the Standing Committee of the Guangdong Provincial People's Congress, pointed out that this may lead to the overdraft of future demand, and the order volume may "decline first and then stabilize" after the window period ends.The trend of major global economies canceling duty-free policies for small-value parcels has also pushed up costs. Take the United States as an example, small
